Scouting Report
Joe Pavelski holds a +8.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Pavelski on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Pavelski wins 54.1% vs right-shot opponents — Schroeder shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Pavelski 51.6% vs Schroeder 45.1% (+8.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Pavelski 52.0%
Defensive zone
Pavelski 86.2%
Neutral zone
Pavelski 81.5%
Result
Joe Pavelski favored at 75.1%
75.1%
24.9%
Pavelski
Schroeder
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
2
(7 meetings)
5
2
Pavelski
Schroeder
Last 7: Pavelski 5-2 Schroeder
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Pavelski
Schroeder
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
3
0
Pavelski
Schroeder
3 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Pavelski
Schroeder
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Pavelski
Schroeder
Edge
Even Strength
50.4% (480)
43.2% (280)
+7.2%
Power Play
51.5% (97)
47.5% (40)
+4.0%
Penalty Kill
60.2% (83)
0.0% (1)
+60.2%
On penalty kill, Pavelski has a +60.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Schroeder shoots right. Pavelski is 54.1% vs right-shot opponents (170).
Pavelski shoots right. Schroeder is 49.5% vs right-shot opponents (97).
Home / Away
Pavelski
Schroeder
Home
53.1% (311)
41.2% (136)
Away
50.7% (349)
45.4% (185)
By Period
Pavelski
Schroeder
P1
55.4%
51.1%
P2
49.6%
39.7%
P3
51.7%
40.5%
OT
36.4%
100.0%
Final 5 min
54.5%
40.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
51.8%
Schroeder
58.0%▲
50.0%
43.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 1, 2013 | 3 | 10:20 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Apr 1, 2013 | 2 | 17:26 | Neutral | Jordan Schroeder |
| Apr 1, 2013 | 2 | 16:45 | Offensive | Jordan Schroeder |
| Apr 1, 2013 | 2 | 05:45 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Apr 1, 2013 | 1 | 08:49 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Jan 27, 2013 | 2 | 04:53 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Jan 27, 2013 | 1 | 19:25 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |