Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (54.2% vs 54.3%). Look for Hertl on offensive-zone draws (83% H2H, 6 meetings). Pavelski wins 53.6% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Pavelski 54.1% vs Hertl 54.3% (-0.1%)
H2H factor
Hertl leads 10-3 in 13 meetings
Offensive zone
Hertl 57.3%
Defensive zone
Hertl 53.0%
Neutral zone
Hertl 55.2%
Result
Tomas Hertl favored at 55.3%
44.7%
55.3%
Pavelski
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
10
(13 meetings)
3
10
Pavelski
Hertl
Last 10: Pavelski 3-7 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
1
5
Pavelski
Hertl
6 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
1
4
Pavelski
Hertl
5 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Pavelski
Hertl
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Pavelski
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
53.6% (8,791)
53.9% (8,290)
-0.3%
Power Play
58.2% (2,122)
59.3% (1,991)
-1.1%
Penalty Kill
50.9% (1,138)
46.3% (806)
+4.6%
On penalty kill, Pavelski has a +4.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Pavelski is 53.6% vs left-shot opponents (9,103).
Pavelski shoots right. Hertl is 56.9% vs right-shot opponents (4,142).
Home / Away
Pavelski
Hertl
Home
56.4% (5,998)
55.8% (5,365)
Away
52.0% (6,076)
52.9% (5,722)
By Period
Pavelski
Hertl
P1
53.5%
53.6%
P2
55.2%
54.1%
P3
53.9%
55.3%
OT
52.3%
46.9%
Final 5 min
54.4%
54.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
54.2%
Hertl
64.0%▲
60.0%
54.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 31, 2022 | 2 | 07:20 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 11, 2022 | 3 | 06:18 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 11, 2022 | 2 | 19:25 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 11, 2022 | 2 | 06:03 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 11, 2022 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Apr 16, 2022 | 2 | 00:30 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Apr 2, 2022 | 3 | 05:34 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Apr 2, 2022 | 2 | 11:05 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Apr 2, 2022 | 2 | 03:54 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Dec 11, 2021 | 2 | 15:22 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Dec 11, 2021 | 2 | 01:13 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 11, 2021 | 1 | 15:33 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 11, 2020 | 3 | 00:32 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |