Scouting Report
Joe Thornton holds a +5.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Thornton on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Shaw wins 45.4% vs left-shot opponents — Thornton shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Shaw 47.7% vs Thornton 52.4% (-5.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Thornton 53.2%
Defensive zone
Thornton 63.6%
Neutral zone
Thornton 54.2%
Result
Joe Thornton favored at 59.4%
40.6%
59.4%
Shaw
Thornton
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
2
(5 meetings)
3
2
Shaw
Thornton
Last 5: Shaw 3-2 Thornton
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Shaw
2
0
Shaw
Thornton
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Thornton
1
2
Shaw
Thornton
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Shaw
Thornton
Edge
Even Strength
45.8% (299)
52.5% (638)
-6.7%
Power Play
54.5% (66)
57.1% (35)
-2.6%
Penalty Kill
42.1% (19)
50.0% (2)
-7.9%
On penalty kill, Thornton has a +7.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Thornton shoots left. Shaw is 45.4% vs left-shot opponents (293).
Shaw shoots right. Thornton is 54.7% vs right-shot opponents (236).
Home / Away
Shaw
Thornton
Home
50.0% (152)
54.8% (341)
Away
45.3% (232)
50.6% (334)
By Period
Shaw
Thornton
P1
44.8%
55.2%
P2
46.0%
56.5%
P3
50.4%
47.1%
Final 5 min
46.8%
49.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Shaw
52.0%▲
48.5%
47.1%
Thornton
44.0%▼
46.5%
52.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 7, 2019 | 1 | 18:11 | Defensive | Joe Thornton |
| Dec 2, 2018 | 3 | 11:54 | Offensive | Andrew Shaw |
| Dec 2, 2018 | 3 | 01:04 | Offensive | Andrew Shaw |
| Dec 2, 2018 | 2 | 14:41 | Defensive | Joe Thornton |
| Dec 2, 2018 | 2 | 14:27 | Defensive | Andrew Shaw |