Scouting Report
Derek Ryan holds a +4.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Thornton on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Ryan wins 56.1% vs left-shot opponents — Thornton shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Ryan 54.6% vs Thornton 50.8% (+4.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Thornton 68.1%
Defensive zone
Thornton 65.2%
Neutral zone
Thornton 67.2%
Result
Joe Thornton favored at 65.6%
34.4%
65.6%
Ryan
Thornton
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
4
(5 meetings)
1
4
Ryan
Thornton
Last 5: Ryan 1-4 Thornton
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Thornton
0
4
Ryan
Thornton
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Ryan
1
0
Ryan
Thornton
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Ryan
Thornton
Edge
Even Strength
54.9% (576)
49.8% (544)
+5.1%
Power Play
59.8% (112)
54.5% (178)
+5.3%
Penalty Kill
42.1% (19)
46.7% (15)
-4.6%
On power play, Ryan has a +5.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Thornton shoots left. Ryan is 56.1% vs left-shot opponents (478).
Ryan shoots right. Thornton is 49.8% vs right-shot opponents (323).
Home / Away
Ryan
Thornton
Home
57.7% (355)
54.9% (355)
Away
52.8% (352)
47.1% (382)
By Period
Ryan
Thornton
P1
57.9%
46.0%
P2
53.2%
52.5%
P3
54.8%
55.6%
OT
100.0%
33.3%
Final 5 min
51.6%
46.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Ryan
52.0%▼
60.0%
55.3%
Thornton
44.0%▼
46.5%
50.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 10, 2016 | 3 | 18:28 | Defensive | Joe Thornton |
| Dec 10, 2016 | 3 | 18:21 | Defensive | Joe Thornton |
| Dec 10, 2016 | 2 | 04:27 | Defensive | Joe Thornton |
| Dec 10, 2016 | 1 | 13:53 | Defensive | Joe Thornton |
| Dec 10, 2016 | 1 | 03:14 | Neutral | Derek Ryan |