Scouting Report
Joe Vitale holds a +20.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Matthias on neutral-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Vitale wins 63.8% vs left-shot opponents — Matthias shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Vitale 59.5% vs Matthias 43.7% (+20.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Matthias 53.2%
Defensive zone
Matthias 50.3%
Neutral zone
Matthias 55.5%
Result
Shawn Matthias favored at 54.4%
45.6%
54.4%
Vitale
Matthias
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
3
(5 meetings)
2
3
Vitale
Matthias
Last 5: Vitale 2-3 Matthias
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Vitale
1
0
Vitale
Matthias
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Matthias
1
3
Vitale
Matthias
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Vitale
Matthias
Edge
Even Strength
61.7% (274)
41.3% (358)
+20.4%
Power Play
75.0% (4)
62.5% (16)
+12.5%
Penalty Kill
66.7% (42)
42.4% (59)
+24.3%
On penalty kill, Vitale has a +24.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Matthias shoots left. Vitale is 63.8% vs left-shot opponents (232).
Vitale shoots right. Matthias is 42.0% vs right-shot opponents (157).
Home / Away
Vitale
Matthias
Home
69.7% (152)
48.5% (198)
Away
56.0% (168)
37.0% (235)
By Period
Vitale
Matthias
P1
55.9%
41.9%
P2
65.2%
47.5%
P3
66.0%
37.5%
Final 5 min
68.4%
50.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Vitale
44.0%▼
48.0%
62.5%
Matthias
40.0%▼
41.5%
42.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2013 | 3 | 12:04 | Defensive | Joe Vitale |
| Oct 11, 2013 | 3 | 01:23 | Neutral | Shawn Matthias |
| Oct 11, 2013 | 1 | 09:10 | Neutral | Joe Vitale |
| Oct 11, 2013 | 1 | 05:38 | Neutral | Shawn Matthias |
| Oct 11, 2013 | 1 | 01:55 | Neutral | Shawn Matthias |