Scouting Report
Joe Pavelski holds a +7.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Ek on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Pavelski wins 53.8% vs left-shot opponents — Ek shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Pavelski 53.3% vs Ek 46.6% (+7.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Ek 61.0%
Defensive zone
Ek 76.8%
Neutral zone
Ek 65.4%
Result
Joel Eriksson Ek favored at 62.7%
37.3%
62.7%
Pavelski
Ek
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
5
(8 meetings)
3
5
Pavelski
Ek
Last 8: Pavelski 3-5 Ek
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
3
2
Pavelski
Ek
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Ek
0
3
Pavelski
Ek
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Pavelski
Ek
Edge
Even Strength
54.4% (474)
47.4% (647)
+7.0%
Power Play
51.9% (104)
70.0% (10)
-18.1%
Penalty Kill
52.7% (74)
38.4% (138)
+14.3%
On power play, Ek has a +18.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Ek shoots left. Pavelski is 53.8% vs left-shot opponents (493).
Pavelski shoots right. Ek is 46.4% vs right-shot opponents (302).
Home / Away
Pavelski
Ek
Home
54.3% (313)
45.8% (432)
Away
53.4% (339)
46.6% (363)
By Period
Pavelski
Ek
P1
51.0%
47.0%
P2
51.9%
46.2%
P3
58.1%
45.1%
OT
62.5%
60.0%
Final 5 min
51.9%
47.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
53.8%
Ek
48.0%▬
49.0%
46.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 7, 2020 | 3 | 16:44 | Offensive | Joel Eriksson Ek |
| Feb 7, 2020 | 3 | 05:17 | Neutral | Joel Eriksson Ek |
| Feb 7, 2020 | 3 | 02:18 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Feb 7, 2020 | 1 | 15:20 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Feb 7, 2020 | 1 | 02:23 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Jan 18, 2020 | 2 | 17:05 | Neutral | Joel Eriksson Ek |
| Jan 18, 2020 | 2 | 00:45 | Offensive | Joel Eriksson Ek |
| Oct 29, 2019 | 1 | 17:54 | Neutral | Joel Eriksson Ek |