Scouting Report
Johan Larsson holds a +3.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Shaw on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Shaw wins 45.4% vs left-shot opponents — Larsson shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Shaw 47.7% vs Larsson 50.6% (-3.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Shaw 87.5%
Defensive zone
Larsson 84.4%
Neutral zone
Larsson 50.8%
Result
Andrew Shaw favored at 55.0%
55.0%
45.0%
Shaw
Larsson
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
3
(9 meetings)
6
3
Shaw
Larsson
Last 9: Shaw 6-3 Larsson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Shaw
4
0
Shaw
Larsson
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Larsson
0
3
Shaw
Larsson
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Shaw
2
0
Shaw
Larsson
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Shaw
Larsson
Edge
Even Strength
45.8% (299)
53.8% (773)
-8.0%
Power Play
54.5% (66)
0.0% (2)
+54.5%
Penalty Kill
42.1% (19)
39.9% (218)
+2.2%
On power play, Shaw has a +54.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Larsson shoots left. Shaw is 45.4% vs left-shot opponents (293).
Shaw shoots right. Larsson is 46.9% vs right-shot opponents (356).
Home / Away
Shaw
Larsson
Home
50.0% (152)
51.2% (490)
Away
45.3% (232)
50.1% (503)
By Period
Shaw
Larsson
P1
44.8%
50.6%
P2
46.0%
53.1%
P3
50.4%
48.3%
Final 5 min
46.8%
49.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Shaw
52.0%▲
48.5%
47.1%
Larsson
40.0%▼
46.5%
50.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 23, 2019 | 2 | 10:38 | Defensive | Johan Larsson |
| Mar 23, 2019 | 2 | 08:01 | Offensive | Andrew Shaw |
| Mar 23, 2019 | 1 | 05:19 | Offensive | Andrew Shaw |
| Nov 23, 2018 | 3 | 15:42 | Defensive | Johan Larsson |
| Nov 23, 2018 | 2 | 00:49 | Offensive | Andrew Shaw |
| Nov 23, 2018 | 1 | 03:10 | Offensive | Andrew Shaw |
| Nov 8, 2018 | 3 | 04:22 | Defensive | Johan Larsson |
| Nov 8, 2018 | 2 | 18:03 | Neutral | Andrew Shaw |
| Nov 8, 2018 | 1 | 06:08 | Neutral | Andrew Shaw |