Scouting Report
Jason Spezza holds a +5.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Spezza on offensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings). Spezza wins 53.8% vs left-shot opponents — Mitchell shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Spezza 54.4% vs Mitchell 49.0% (+5.9%)
H2H factor
Spezza leads 9-1 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
Spezza 89.2%
Defensive zone
Mitchell 62.3%
Neutral zone
Spezza 77.0%
Result
Jason Spezza favored at 71.3%
71.3%
28.7%
Spezza
Mitchell
Head-to-Head Record
9
-
1
(10 meetings)
9
1
Spezza
Mitchell
Last 10: Spezza 9-1 Mitchell
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Spezza
4
1
Spezza
Mitchell
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Spezza
3
0
Spezza
Mitchell
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Spezza
2
0
Spezza
Mitchell
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Spezza
Mitchell
Edge
Even Strength
53.2% (763)
52.5% (676)
+0.7%
Power Play
60.9% (197)
55.6% (18)
+5.3%
Penalty Kill
57.1% (21)
32.3% (155)
+24.8%
On penalty kill, Spezza has a +24.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Mitchell shoots left. Spezza is 53.8% vs left-shot opponents (675).
Spezza shoots right. Mitchell is 46.1% vs right-shot opponents (308).
Home / Away
Spezza
Mitchell
Home
57.5% (518)
52.2% (450)
Away
51.8% (463)
45.1% (399)
By Period
Spezza
Mitchell
P1
55.4%
51.2%
P2
54.1%
50.2%
P3
55.5%
44.8%
OT
25.0%
80.0%
Final 5 min
59.1%
51.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Spezza
46.0%▼
48.5%
54.8%
Mitchell
66.0%▲
56.5%
48.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 4, 2016 | 1 | 08:40 | Defensive | Jason Spezza |
| Jan 23, 2016 | 3 | 10:46 | Defensive | Jason Spezza |
| Jan 23, 2016 | 2 | 09:55 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |
| Jan 23, 2016 | 2 | 07:24 | Neutral | Jason Spezza |
| Jan 23, 2016 | 2 | 06:30 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |
| Jan 23, 2016 | 2 | 02:01 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |
| Oct 10, 2015 | 3 | 15:54 | Defensive | Jason Spezza |
| Oct 10, 2015 | 3 | 07:43 | Neutral | Jason Spezza |
| Oct 10, 2015 | 3 | 04:41 | Offensive | John Mitchell |
| Oct 10, 2015 | 2 | 19:49 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |