Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +3.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Tavares on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Dvorak wins 54.8% vs left-shot opponents — Tavares shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Dvorak 53.3% vs Tavares 56.7% (-3.6%)
H2H factor
Tavares leads 12-4 in 16 meetings
Offensive zone
Dvorak 56.3%
Defensive zone
Dvorak 77.3%
Neutral zone
Dvorak 53.3%
Result
Christian Dvorak favored at 64.7%
64.7%
35.3%
Dvorak
Tavares
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
12
(16 meetings)
4
12
Dvorak
Tavares
Last 10: Dvorak 3-7 Tavares
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
2
3
Dvorak
Tavares
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
2
5
Dvorak
Tavares
7 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Tavares
0
4
Dvorak
Tavares
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Dvorak
Tavares
Edge
Even Strength
54.2% (804)
57.7% (956)
-3.5%
Power Play
54.2% (131)
55.7% (244)
-1.5%
Penalty Kill
46.4% (84)
52.2% (23)
-5.8%
On penalty kill, Tavares has a +5.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Tavares shoots left. Dvorak is 54.8% vs left-shot opponents (660).
Dvorak shoots left. Tavares is 60.8% vs left-shot opponents (786).
Home / Away
Dvorak
Tavares
Home
53.9% (497)
57.4% (636)
Away
53.3% (522)
57.1% (587)
By Period
Dvorak
Tavares
P1
54.6%
57.1%
P2
53.2%
57.0%
P3
54.3%
57.6%
OT
34.8%
57.7%
Final 5 min
46.1%
56.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Dvorak
60.0%▲
53.5%
53.6%
Tavares
44.0%▼
52.5%
57.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 2, 2026 | OT | 04:30 | Offensive | Christian Dvorak |
| Mar 2, 2026 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Mar 2, 2026 | 3 | 14:01 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Mar 2, 2026 | 3 | 13:48 | Offensive | Christian Dvorak |
| Mar 2, 2026 | 3 | 06:26 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Mar 2, 2026 | 2 | 18:01 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Mar 2, 2026 | 2 | 00:33 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Jan 8, 2026 | 2 | 18:58 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Nov 1, 2025 | 3 | 16:08 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Nov 1, 2025 | 2 | 18:29 | Defensive | Christian Dvorak |
| Nov 1, 2025 | 2 | 09:45 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Nov 1, 2025 | 2 | 00:52 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Nov 1, 2025 | 1 | 18:33 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Nov 1, 2025 | 1 | 18:21 | Defensive | Christian Dvorak |
| Nov 1, 2025 | 1 | 12:31 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Nov 1, 2025 | 1 | 06:16 | Neutral | John Tavares |