Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +9.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Tavares on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Guentzel 48.1% vs Tavares 56.7% (-9.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Guentzel 75.4%
Defensive zone
Guentzel 67.4%
Neutral zone
Guentzel 76.8%
Result
Jake Guentzel favored at 73.4%
73.4%
26.6%
Guentzel
Tavares
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
6
(6 meetings)
0
6
Guentzel
Tavares
Last 6: Guentzel 0-6 Tavares
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
0
1
Guentzel
Tavares
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
0
2
Guentzel
Tavares
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Tavares
0
3
Guentzel
Tavares
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Guentzel
Tavares
Edge
Even Strength
49.1% (230)
57.7% (956)
-8.6%
Power Play
44.9% (118)
55.7% (244)
-10.8%
Penalty Kill
46.2% (26)
52.2% (23)
-6.0%
On power play, Tavares has a +10.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Tavares shoots left. Guentzel is 47.1% vs left-shot opponents (238).
Guentzel shoots left. Tavares is 60.8% vs left-shot opponents (786).
Home / Away
Guentzel
Tavares
Home
50.2% (205)
57.4% (636)
Away
44.4% (169)
57.1% (587)
By Period
Guentzel
Tavares
P1
47.6%
57.1%
P2
49.0%
57.0%
P3
46.2%
57.6%
OT
42.9%
57.7%
Final 5 min
49.3%
56.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Guentzel
54.0%▲
47.0%
47.6%
Tavares
44.0%▼
52.5%
57.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 7, 2026 | 3 | 06:50 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Mar 7, 2026 | 1 | 13:48 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Feb 25, 2026 | 3 | 04:21 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Feb 25, 2026 | 2 | 00:48 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Dec 8, 2025 | 3 | 19:09 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Dec 8, 2025 | 3 | 06:06 | Neutral | John Tavares |