Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +11.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Tavares on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tavares 56.8% vs Schmaltz 46.6% (+11.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Tavares 66.2%
Defensive zone
Tavares 86.5%
Neutral zone
Tavares 86.2%
Result
John Tavares favored at 82.3%
82.3%
17.7%
Tavares
Schmaltz
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
1
(5 meetings)
4
1
Tavares
Schmaltz
Last 5: Tavares 4-1 Schmaltz
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
1
0
Tavares
Schmaltz
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
2
1
Tavares
Schmaltz
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Tavares
1
0
Tavares
Schmaltz
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tavares
Schmaltz
Edge
Even Strength
57.7% (975)
45.9% (697)
+11.8%
Power Play
56.0% (250)
47.9% (117)
+8.1%
Penalty Kill
52.2% (23)
48.0% (25)
+4.2%
On even strength, Tavares has a +11.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Schmaltz shoots right. Tavares is 50.8% vs right-shot opponents (437).
Tavares shoots left. Schmaltz is 41.8% vs left-shot opponents (593).
Home / Away
Tavares
Schmaltz
Home
57.4% (636)
44.9% (434)
Away
57.2% (612)
47.7% (405)
By Period
Tavares
Schmaltz
P1
57.5%
41.5%
P2
56.9%
46.7%
P3
57.5%
51.1%
OT
57.1%
0.0%
Final 5 min
56.9%
40.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tavares
48.0%▼
54.0%
57.3%
Schmaltz
42.0%▼
46.0%
46.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 13, 2026 | 3 | 00:52 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Jan 13, 2026 | 2 | 09:12 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Jan 13, 2026 | 2 | 04:42 | Defensive | Nick Schmaltz |
| Jan 13, 2026 | 1 | 18:41 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Jan 13, 2026 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | John Tavares |