Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +2.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Sturm on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Tavares wins 60.8% vs left-shot opponents — Sturm shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tavares 56.7% vs Sturm 53.6% (+2.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Tavares 71.5%
Defensive zone
Sturm 84.3%
Neutral zone
Sturm 63.6%
Result
Nico Sturm favored at 73.2%
26.8%
73.2%
Tavares
Sturm
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
4
(5 meetings)
1
4
Tavares
Sturm
Last 5: Tavares 1-4 Sturm
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
1
0
Tavares
Sturm
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Sturm
0
4
Tavares
Sturm
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tavares
Sturm
Edge
Even Strength
57.7% (956)
54.6% (271)
+3.1%
Penalty Kill
52.2% (23)
54.4% (90)
-2.2%
On even strength, Tavares has a +3.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Sturm shoots left. Tavares is 60.8% vs left-shot opponents (786).
Tavares shoots left. Sturm is 54.7% vs left-shot opponents (243).
Home / Away
Tavares
Sturm
Home
57.4% (636)
53.0% (168)
Away
57.1% (587)
56.0% (193)
By Period
Tavares
Sturm
P1
57.1%
58.2%
P2
57.0%
53.2%
P3
57.6%
52.3%
OT
57.7%
100.0%
Final 5 min
56.6%
55.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tavares
44.0%▼
52.5%
57.2%
Sturm
52.0%▼
57.5%
54.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 15, 2026 | 2 | 00:47 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Jan 19, 2026 | 3 | 08:37 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Jan 19, 2026 | 2 | 10:18 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Jan 19, 2026 | 2 | 03:56 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Jan 19, 2026 | 1 | 18:06 | Offensive | John Tavares |