Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +2.6% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tavares 52.7% vs Carpenter 50.2% (+2.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Tavares 54.8%
Defensive zone
Carpenter 77.1%
Neutral zone
Carpenter 62.7%
Result
Ryan Carpenter favored at 65.0%
35.0%
65.0%
Tavares
Carpenter
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
4
(5 meetings)
1
4
Tavares
Carpenter
Last 5: Tavares 1-4 Carpenter
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
1
0
Tavares
Carpenter
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Carpenter
0
2
Tavares
Carpenter
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Carpenter
0
2
Tavares
Carpenter
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tavares
Carpenter
Edge
Even Strength
52.9% (1,239)
48.4% (314)
+4.5%
Power Play
54.7% (309)
60.0% (5)
-5.3%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (178)
57.0% (79)
-7.0%
On penalty kill, Carpenter has a +7.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Carpenter shoots right. Tavares is 50.2% vs right-shot opponents (602).
Tavares shoots left. Carpenter is 47.1% vs left-shot opponents (278).
Home / Away
Tavares
Carpenter
Home
55.0% (864)
55.8% (197)
Away
50.8% (862)
44.8% (201)
By Period
Tavares
Carpenter
P1
51.8%
48.3%
P2
51.4%
47.8%
P3
54.5%
54.6%
OT
66.7%
0.0%
Final 5 min
52.8%
59.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tavares
52.0%▼
57.5%
52.9%
Carpenter
48.0%▬
47.0%
50.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 21, 2017 | 1 | 12:14 | Neutral | Ryan Carpenter |
| Oct 21, 2017 | 1 | 08:55 | Neutral | Ryan Carpenter |
| Oct 14, 2017 | 3 | 05:27 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Oct 14, 2017 | 2 | 01:39 | Defensive | Ryan Carpenter |
| Oct 14, 2017 | 2 | 01:04 | Defensive | Ryan Carpenter |