Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +3.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Tavares on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 6 meetings). Tavares wins 60.8% vs left-shot opponents — Couturier shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tavares 56.7% vs Couturier 53.6% (+3.3%)
H2H factor
Tavares leads 8-3 in 11 meetings
Offensive zone
Tavares 76.7%
Defensive zone
Couturier 77.2%
Neutral zone
Tavares 65.2%
Result
John Tavares favored at 56.0%
56.0%
44.0%
Tavares
Couturier
Head-to-Head Record
8
-
3
(11 meetings)
8
3
Tavares
Couturier
Last 10: Tavares 8-2 Couturier
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
6
0
Tavares
Couturier
6 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Couturier
1
3
Tavares
Couturier
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Tavares
1
0
Tavares
Couturier
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tavares
Couturier
Edge
Even Strength
57.7% (956)
53.9% (792)
+3.8%
Power Play
55.7% (244)
62.9% (70)
-7.2%
Penalty Kill
52.2% (23)
51.3% (234)
+0.9%
On power play, Couturier has a +7.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Couturier shoots left. Tavares is 60.8% vs left-shot opponents (786).
Tavares shoots left. Couturier is 52.4% vs left-shot opponents (696).
Home / Away
Tavares
Couturier
Home
57.4% (636)
51.4% (541)
Away
57.1% (587)
56.4% (555)
By Period
Tavares
Couturier
P1
57.1%
56.0%
P2
57.0%
52.6%
P3
57.6%
54.3%
OT
57.7%
44.1%
Final 5 min
56.6%
55.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tavares
44.0%▼
52.5%
57.2%
Couturier
64.0%▲
56.0%
53.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 2, 2026 | OT | 02:56 | Defensive | Sean Couturier |
| Mar 2, 2026 | 3 | 16:36 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Mar 2, 2026 | 3 | 15:57 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Mar 2, 2026 | 3 | 15:37 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Mar 2, 2026 | 3 | 00:40 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Mar 2, 2026 | 1 | 18:38 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Mar 2, 2026 | 1 | 01:26 | Defensive | Sean Couturier |
| Jan 8, 2026 | 3 | 15:17 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Jan 8, 2026 | 2 | 16:05 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Jan 8, 2026 | 2 | 11:31 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Jan 8, 2026 | 2 | 08:40 | Defensive | Sean Couturier |