Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +9.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Tavares on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Tavares wins 55.3% vs left-shot opponents — Smith shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tavares 54.9% vs Smith 47.6% (+9.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Tavares 75.9%
Defensive zone
Tavares 50.8%
Neutral zone
Tavares 71.2%
Result
John Tavares favored at 65.1%
65.1%
34.9%
Tavares
Smith
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
3
(7 meetings)
4
3
Tavares
Smith
Last 7: Tavares 4-3 Smith
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
4
0
Tavares
Smith
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Smith
0
3
Tavares
Smith
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tavares
Smith
Edge
Even Strength
54.8% (861)
47.8% (178)
+7.0%
Power Play
57.5% (226)
0.0% (2)
+57.5%
Penalty Kill
51.7% (29)
30.0% (10)
+21.7%
On power play, Tavares has a +57.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Smith shoots left. Tavares is 55.3% vs left-shot opponents (685).
Tavares shoots left. Smith is 50.4% vs left-shot opponents (113).
Home / Away
Tavares
Smith
Home
58.1% (559)
46.5% (86)
Away
52.4% (557)
46.2% (104)
By Period
Tavares
Smith
P1
57.6%
61.4%
P2
55.5%
39.4%
P3
52.0%
39.3%
OT
80.0%
100.0%
Final 5 min
54.7%
33.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tavares
52.0%▼
57.5%
55.3%
Smith
40.0%▼
47.0%
46.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 18, 2020 | 2 | 13:37 | Defensive | Zack Smith |
| Jan 18, 2020 | 2 | 09:45 | Defensive | Zack Smith |
| Jan 18, 2020 | 1 | 12:58 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Jan 18, 2020 | 1 | 12:50 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Nov 10, 2019 | 3 | 12:37 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Nov 10, 2019 | 3 | 03:55 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Nov 10, 2019 | 1 | 13:12 | Defensive | Zack Smith |