Scouting Report
Sean Monahan holds a +3.4% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Drouin 49.5% vs Monahan 52.5% (-3.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Drouin 62.3%
Defensive zone
Drouin 55.7%
Neutral zone
Drouin 58.5%
Result
Jonathan Drouin favored at 58.1%
58.1%
41.9%
Drouin
Monahan
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
4
(5 meetings)
1
4
Drouin
Monahan
Last 5: Drouin 1-4 Monahan
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Monahan
0
1
Drouin
Monahan
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Monahan
0
2
Drouin
Monahan
2 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Drouin
Monahan
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Drouin
Monahan
Edge
Even Strength
47.5% (181)
53.0% (874)
-5.5%
Power Play
56.8% (44)
54.7% (161)
+2.1%
On even strength, Monahan has a +5.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Monahan shoots left. Drouin is 50.7% vs left-shot opponents (136).
Drouin shoots left. Monahan is 53.1% vs left-shot opponents (710).
Home / Away
Drouin
Monahan
Home
49.5% (97)
53.8% (558)
Away
49.2% (128)
51.7% (578)
By Period
Drouin
Monahan
P1
52.1%
49.5%
P2
51.5%
54.8%
P3
45.0%
52.8%
OT
50.0%
61.9%
Final 5 min
50.0%
53.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Drouin
44.0%▼
49.5%
49.3%
Monahan
40.0%▼
51.0%
52.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | 3 | 10:52 | Defensive | Sean Monahan |
| Feb 28, 2026 | 2 | 04:57 | Offensive | Sean Monahan |
| Feb 28, 2026 | 1 | 19:37 | Defensive | Sean Monahan |
| Dec 28, 2025 | 3 | 12:34 | Neutral | Sean Monahan |
| Nov 2, 2025 | 3 | 16:56 | Neutral | Jonathan Drouin |