Connor McMichael vs Jonathan Toews
2025-26 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Jonathan Toews holds a +18.8% FO% edge overall. Look for McMichael on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). McMichael wins 44.7% vs left-shot opponents — Toews shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McMichael 43.9% vs Toews 60.4% (-18.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Toews 88.2%
Defensive zone
Toews 57.4%
Neutral zone
Toews 81.0%
Result
Jonathan Toews favored at 69.7%
30.3%
69.7%
McMichael
Toews
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
2
(5 meetings)
3
2
McMichael
Toews
Last 5: McMichael 3-2 Toews
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Toews
0
2
McMichael
Toews
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: McMichael
3
0
McMichael
Toews
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McMichael
Toews
Edge
Even Strength
42.9% (408)
62.6% (728)
-19.7%
Power Play
49.1% (55)
59.4% (143)
-10.3%
Penalty Kill
39.0% (105)
46.9% (32)
-7.9%
On even strength, Toews has a +19.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Toews shoots left. McMichael is 44.7% vs left-shot opponents (376).
McMichael shoots left. Toews is 56.6% vs left-shot opponents (599).
Home / Away
McMichael
Toews
Home
43.0% (298)
61.1% (455)
Away
42.6% (270)
62.1% (448)
By Period
McMichael
Toews
P1
46.6%
59.7%
P2
40.8%
66.7%
P3
41.8%
58.4%
Final 5 min
43.3%
58.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McMichael
38.0%▼
45.0%
42.8%
Toews
62.0%▼
63.5%
61.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 13, 2025 | 3 | 06:51 | Defensive | Connor McMichael |
| Nov 26, 2025 | 3 | 11:22 | Offensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Nov 26, 2025 | 3 | 08:45 | Defensive | Connor McMichael |
| Nov 26, 2025 | 2 | 09:09 | Offensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Nov 26, 2025 | 1 | 06:57 | Defensive | Connor McMichael |