Scouting Report
Jonathan Toews holds a +14.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Toews on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Rodrigues wins 46.9% vs left-shot opponents — Toews shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Rodrigues 47.1% vs Toews 60.4% (-14.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Rodrigues 76.6%
Defensive zone
Rodrigues 77.3%
Neutral zone
Rodrigues 83.7%
Result
Evan Rodrigues favored at 78.0%
78.0%
22.0%
Rodrigues
Toews
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
5
(6 meetings)
1
5
Rodrigues
Toews
Last 6: Rodrigues 1-5 Toews
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Toews
1
2
Rodrigues
Toews
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Toews
0
2
Rodrigues
Toews
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Toews
0
1
Rodrigues
Toews
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Rodrigues
Toews
Edge
Even Strength
47.8% (651)
62.6% (728)
-14.8%
Power Play
47.2% (72)
59.4% (143)
-12.2%
Penalty Kill
36.8% (68)
46.9% (32)
-10.1%
On even strength, Toews has a +14.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Toews shoots left. Rodrigues is 46.9% vs left-shot opponents (588).
Rodrigues shoots right. Toews is 71.3% vs right-shot opponents (303).
Home / Away
Rodrigues
Toews
Home
47.9% (445)
61.1% (455)
Away
45.4% (346)
62.1% (448)
By Period
Rodrigues
Toews
P1
48.3%
59.7%
P2
47.0%
66.7%
P3
44.8%
58.4%
OT
50.0%
80.0%
Final 5 min
50.3%
58.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Rodrigues
46.0%▼
49.0%
46.8%
Toews
62.0%▼
63.5%
61.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 31, 2026 | 3 | 14:51 | Offensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Jan 22, 2026 | OT | 02:26 | Defensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Jan 22, 2026 | 3 | 12:00 | Offensive | Evan Rodrigues |
| Jan 22, 2026 | 2 | 14:32 | Offensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Jan 22, 2026 | 2 | 09:31 | Neutral | Jonathan Toews |
| Jan 22, 2026 | 1 | 01:25 | Defensive | Jonathan Toews |