Scouting Report
Jonathan Toews holds a +1.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Pavelski on defensive-zone draws (86% H2H, 7 meetings). Pavelski wins 54.9% vs left-shot opponents — Toews shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Pavelski 55.5% vs Toews 56.8% (-1.3%)
H2H factor
Pavelski leads 9-3 in 12 meetings
Offensive zone
Toews 78.8%
Defensive zone
Pavelski 64.6%
Neutral zone
Pavelski 50.7%
Result
Joe Pavelski favored at 51.4%
51.4%
48.6%
Pavelski
Toews
Head-to-Head Record
9
-
3
(12 meetings)
9
3
Pavelski
Toews
Last 10: Pavelski 7-3 Toews
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
2
1
Pavelski
Toews
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
6
1
Pavelski
Toews
7 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Pavelski
Toews
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Pavelski
Toews
Edge
Even Strength
55.7% (849)
55.9% (1,143)
-0.2%
Power Play
60.0% (205)
65.1% (304)
-5.1%
Penalty Kill
52.0% (152)
48.5% (97)
+3.5%
On power play, Toews has a +5.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Toews shoots left. Pavelski is 54.9% vs left-shot opponents (854).
Pavelski shoots right. Toews is 57.9% vs right-shot opponents (625).
Home / Away
Pavelski
Toews
Home
59.2% (622)
61.7% (810)
Away
52.6% (584)
52.3% (734)
By Period
Pavelski
Toews
P1
54.1%
56.0%
P2
56.4%
56.9%
P3
56.4%
59.3%
OT
65.6%
50.0%
Final 5 min
54.8%
61.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
56.0%
Toews
52.0%▼
58.0%
57.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 1, 2014 | 3 | 19:20 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Feb 1, 2014 | 3 | 15:04 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Feb 1, 2014 | 3 | 05:43 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Feb 1, 2014 | 2 | 13:48 | Neutral | Jonathan Toews |
| Feb 1, 2014 | 2 | 04:31 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Feb 1, 2014 | 1 | 12:39 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Jan 5, 2014 | 3 | 03:12 | Defensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Jan 5, 2014 | 3 | 01:15 | Offensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Jan 5, 2014 | 2 | 14:28 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Jan 5, 2014 | 1 | 08:08 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Jan 5, 2014 | 1 | 05:05 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Jan 5, 2014 | 1 | 00:27 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |