Scouting Report
Jonathan Toews holds a +12.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Toews on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Toews wins 71.3% vs right-shot opponents — Bjugstad shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Toews 60.4% vs Bjugstad 49.5% (+12.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Toews 95.8%
Defensive zone
Toews 68.6%
Neutral zone
Toews 88.3%
Result
Jonathan Toews favored at 78.0%
78.0%
22.0%
Toews
Bjugstad
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
1
(5 meetings)
4
1
Toews
Bjugstad
Last 5: Toews 4-1 Bjugstad
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Toews
1
0
Toews
Bjugstad
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Toews
2
1
Toews
Bjugstad
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Toews
1
0
Toews
Bjugstad
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Toews
Bjugstad
Edge
Even Strength
62.6% (728)
49.7% (292)
+12.9%
Power Play
59.4% (143)
50.0% (6)
+9.4%
Penalty Kill
46.9% (32)
47.2% (36)
-0.3%
On even strength, Toews has a +12.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Bjugstad shoots right. Toews is 71.3% vs right-shot opponents (303).
Toews shoots left. Bjugstad is 48.8% vs left-shot opponents (260).
Home / Away
Toews
Bjugstad
Home
61.1% (455)
48.7% (193)
Away
62.1% (448)
50.4% (141)
By Period
Toews
Bjugstad
P1
59.7%
41.5%
P2
66.7%
57.3%
P3
58.4%
50.0%
OT
80.0%
33.3%
Final 5 min
58.7%
51.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Toews
62.0%▼
63.5%
61.6%
Bjugstad
42.0%▼
48.0%
49.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 20, 2026 | 3 | 16:41 | Defensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Jan 20, 2026 | 3 | 02:27 | Defensive | Nick Bjugstad |
| Jan 20, 2026 | 1 | 18:21 | Neutral | Jonathan Toews |
| Jan 20, 2026 | 1 | 08:39 | Offensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Jan 20, 2026 | 1 | 08:31 | Defensive | Jonathan Toews |