Scouting Report
Jonathan Toews holds a +9.7% FO% edge overall. Toews wins 71.3% vs right-shot opponents — Thomas shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Toews 60.4% vs Thomas 51.7% (+9.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Toews 56.0%
Defensive zone
Thomas 61.7%
Neutral zone
Thomas 57.6%
Result
Robert Thomas favored at 52.8%
47.2%
52.8%
Toews
Thomas
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
1
(2 meetings)
1
1
Toews
Thomas
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Toews
1
0
Toews
Thomas
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Thomas
0
1
Toews
Thomas
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Toews
Thomas
Edge
Even Strength
62.6% (728)
50.2% (635)
+12.4%
Power Play
59.4% (143)
61.0% (100)
-1.6%
Penalty Kill
46.9% (32)
53.4% (118)
-6.5%
On even strength, Toews has a +12.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Thomas shoots right. Toews is 71.3% vs right-shot opponents (303).
Toews shoots left. Thomas is 51.7% vs left-shot opponents (598).
Home / Away
Toews
Thomas
Home
61.1% (455)
52.0% (400)
Away
62.1% (448)
51.9% (453)
By Period
Toews
Thomas
P1
59.7%
49.4%
P2
66.7%
55.2%
P3
58.4%
50.7%
OT
80.0%
57.1%
Final 5 min
58.7%
51.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Toews
62.0%▼
63.5%
61.6%
Thomas
48.0%▲
45.5%
51.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 17, 2025 | 2 | 17:48 | Offensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Dec 17, 2025 | 2 | 01:19 | Defensive | Robert Thomas |