Scouting Report
Jonathan Toews holds a +2.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Toews on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Toews wins 58.0% vs right-shot opponents — Bozak shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Toews 56.3% vs Bozak 54.3% (+2.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Toews 79.9%
Defensive zone
Toews 59.2%
Neutral zone
Toews 70.1%
Result
Jonathan Toews favored at 75.8%
75.8%
24.2%
Toews
Bozak
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
1
(5 meetings)
4
1
Toews
Bozak
Last 5: Toews 4-1 Bozak
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Toews
3
1
Toews
Bozak
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Toews
1
0
Toews
Bozak
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Toews
Bozak
Edge
Even Strength
55.6% (1,125)
54.2% (962)
+1.4%
Power Play
59.3% (312)
57.9% (266)
+1.4%
Penalty Kill
57.4% (204)
52.1% (188)
+5.3%
On penalty kill, Toews has a +5.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Bozak shoots right. Toews is 58.0% vs right-shot opponents (459).
Toews shoots left. Bozak is 52.1% vs left-shot opponents (922).
Home / Away
Toews
Bozak
Home
59.8% (858)
58.6% (732)
Away
53.3% (795)
50.5% (709)
By Period
Toews
Bozak
P1
58.7%
54.1%
P2
55.1%
55.0%
P3
56.5%
54.1%
OT
54.8%
65.2%
Final 5 min
56.3%
54.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Toews
52.0%▼
58.0%
56.7%
Bozak
46.0%▼
48.5%
54.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 5, 2011 | 3 | 14:18 | Offensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Mar 5, 2011 | 2 | 16:28 | Defensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Mar 5, 2011 | 2 | 04:50 | Offensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Mar 5, 2011 | 1 | 13:30 | Offensive | Tyler Bozak |
| Mar 5, 2011 | 1 | 09:45 | Offensive | Jonathan Toews |