Justin Sourdif vs Pavel Buchnevich
2025-26 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Justin Sourdif holds a +5.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Buchnevich on neutral-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Sourdif wins 46.0% vs left-shot opponents — Buchnevich shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Sourdif 45.6% vs Buchnevich 43.0% (+5.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Buchnevich 68.0%
Defensive zone
Sourdif 69.9%
Neutral zone
Buchnevich 56.0%
Result
Pavel Buchnevich favored at 55.7%
44.3%
55.7%
Sourdif
Buchnevich
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
4
(7 meetings)
3
4
Sourdif
Buchnevich
Last 7: Sourdif 3-4 Buchnevich
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Sourdif
Buchnevich
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Sourdif
1
0
Sourdif
Buchnevich
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Buchnevich
1
3
Sourdif
Buchnevich
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Sourdif
Buchnevich
Edge
Even Strength
44.3% (585)
39.8% (181)
+4.5%
Power Play
50.0% (24)
42.9% (14)
+7.1%
Penalty Kill
61.5% (13)
30.0% (10)
+31.5%
On penalty kill, Sourdif has a +31.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Buchnevich shoots left. Sourdif is 46.0% vs left-shot opponents (441).
Sourdif shoots right. Buchnevich is 44.4% vs right-shot opponents (81).
Home / Away
Sourdif
Buchnevich
Home
43.6% (321)
40.7% (118)
Away
46.2% (301)
37.9% (87)
By Period
Sourdif
Buchnevich
P1
41.9%
41.6%
P2
44.3%
34.3%
P3
47.9%
42.4%
OT
100.0%
50.0%
Final 5 min
42.9%
40.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Sourdif
36.0%▼
41.0%
44.9%
Buchnevich
42.0%▲
39.5%
39.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 24, 2026 | 3 | 16:32 | Offensive | Pavel Buchnevich |
| Mar 24, 2026 | 3 | 15:28 | Neutral | Pavel Buchnevich |
| Mar 24, 2026 | 3 | 04:08 | Defensive | Justin Sourdif |
| Mar 24, 2026 | 3 | 03:51 | Offensive | Justin Sourdif |
| Mar 24, 2026 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Pavel Buchnevich |
| Mar 24, 2026 | 2 | 09:59 | Neutral | Justin Sourdif |
| Mar 24, 2026 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Pavel Buchnevich |