Scouting Report
Michael McCarron holds a +16.5% FO% edge overall. Look for McCarron on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Hayes wins 31.3% vs right-shot opponents — McCarron shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Hayes 42.7% vs McCarron 52.1% (-16.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hayes 88.2%
Defensive zone
McCarron 54.3%
Neutral zone
Hayes 68.4%
Result
Kevin Hayes favored at 63.7%
63.7%
36.3%
Hayes
McCarron
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
5
(6 meetings)
1
5
Hayes
McCarron
Last 6: Hayes 1-5 McCarron
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Hayes
McCarron
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: McCarron
0
3
Hayes
McCarron
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: McCarron
0
1
Hayes
McCarron
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Hayes
McCarron
Edge
Even Strength
31.9% (91)
52.8% (697)
-20.9%
Power Play
64.3% (14)
18.2% (11)
+46.1%
Penalty Kill
0.0% (1)
52.6% (211)
-52.6%
On penalty kill, McCarron has a +52.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
McCarron shoots right. Hayes is 31.3% vs right-shot opponents (48).
Hayes shoots left. McCarron is 53.8% vs left-shot opponents (645).
Home / Away
Hayes
McCarron
Home
30.6% (49)
52.8% (477)
Away
40.4% (57)
51.8% (442)
By Period
Hayes
McCarron
P1
22.9%
56.2%
P2
40.0%
52.4%
P3
44.4%
48.7%
Final 5 min
30.4%
50.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Hayes
30.0%▼
42.5%
35.8%
McCarron
38.0%▼
49.0%
52.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 16, 2025 | 1 | 13:58 | Defensive | Michael McCarron |
| Nov 16, 2025 | 1 | 13:54 | Defensive | Michael McCarron |
| Nov 16, 2025 | 1 | 07:34 | Defensive | Michael McCarron |
| Nov 14, 2025 | 3 | 08:54 | Offensive | Michael McCarron |
| Nov 14, 2025 | 2 | 10:38 | Neutral | Michael McCarron |
| Nov 14, 2025 | 1 | 02:19 | Offensive | Kevin Hayes |