Scouting Report
Oliver Kapanen holds a +10.8% FO% edge overall. Hayes wins 31.3% vs right-shot opponents — Kapanen shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Hayes 42.7% vs Kapanen 47.1% (-10.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hayes 63.9%
Defensive zone
Hayes 53.8%
Neutral zone
Hayes 65.2%
Result
Kevin Hayes favored at 62.4%
62.4%
37.6%
Hayes
Kapanen
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
4
(5 meetings)
1
4
Hayes
Kapanen
Last 5: Hayes 1-4 Kapanen
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Kapanen
0
2
Hayes
Kapanen
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kapanen
0
1
Hayes
Kapanen
1 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Hayes
Kapanen
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Hayes
Kapanen
Edge
Even Strength
31.9% (91)
46.5% (527)
-14.6%
Power Play
64.3% (14)
54.8% (42)
+9.5%
Penalty Kill
0.0% (1)
39.5% (38)
-39.5%
On penalty kill, Kapanen has a +39.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kapanen shoots right. Hayes is 31.3% vs right-shot opponents (48).
Hayes shoots left. Kapanen is 45.9% vs left-shot opponents (449).
Home / Away
Hayes
Kapanen
Home
30.6% (49)
47.0% (315)
Away
40.4% (57)
46.2% (292)
By Period
Hayes
Kapanen
P1
22.9%
41.6%
P2
40.0%
50.7%
P3
44.4%
47.6%
Final 5 min
30.4%
44.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Hayes
30.0%▼
42.5%
35.8%
Kapanen
32.0%▼
47.0%
46.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 20, 2025 | 2 | 04:14 | Offensive | Oliver Kapanen |
| Dec 20, 2025 | 1 | 05:08 | Offensive | Oliver Kapanen |
| Dec 11, 2025 | 3 | 07:38 | Defensive | Oliver Kapanen |
| Dec 11, 2025 | 3 | 00:59 | Neutral | Kevin Hayes |
| Dec 11, 2025 | 1 | 01:03 | Neutral | Oliver Kapanen |