Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (44.0% vs 44.6%). Look for Carlsson on offensive-zone draws (60% H2H, 5 meetings). Carlsson wins 46.6% vs right-shot opponents — Ford shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Carlsson 44.6% vs Ford 47.9% (-0.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Carlsson 64.1%
Defensive zone
Ford 54.0%
Neutral zone
Carlsson 56.0%
Result
Leo Carlsson favored at 58.9%
58.9%
41.1%
Carlsson
Ford
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
4
(7 meetings)
3
4
Carlsson
Ford
Last 7: Carlsson 3-4 Ford
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Carlsson
3
2
Carlsson
Ford
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Ford
0
2
Carlsson
Ford
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Carlsson
Ford
Edge
Even Strength
44.9% (690)
45.1% (51)
-0.2%
Power Play
47.0% (83)
100.0% (1)
-53.0%
Penalty Kill
33.3% (84)
38.5% (13)
-5.2%
On power play, Ford has a +53.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Ford shoots right. Carlsson is 46.6% vs right-shot opponents (290).
Carlsson shoots left. Ford is 41.1% vs left-shot opponents (56).
Home / Away
Carlsson
Ford
Home
42.5% (428)
35.7% (14)
Away
45.5% (429)
47.1% (51)
By Period
Carlsson
Ford
P1
45.1%
50.0%
P2
39.0%
52.0%
P3
48.5%
31.8%
Final 5 min
38.4%
50.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Carlsson
36.0%▼
38.5%
44.0%
Ford
44.0%▬
44.6%
44.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 9, 2025 | 3 | 18:36 | Offensive | Parker Ford |
| Nov 9, 2025 | 3 | 14:50 | Offensive | Leo Carlsson |
| Nov 9, 2025 | 3 | 01:47 | Offensive | Leo Carlsson |
| Nov 9, 2025 | 2 | 16:40 | Offensive | Leo Carlsson |
| Nov 9, 2025 | 2 | 05:26 | Defensive | Parker Ford |
| Nov 9, 2025 | 1 | 18:15 | Defensive | Parker Ford |
| Nov 9, 2025 | 1 | 10:54 | Offensive | Parker Ford |