Scouting Report
Adam Lowry holds a +5.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Celebrini on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Lowry 53.5% vs Celebrini 48.4% (+5.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Lowry 50.4%
Defensive zone
Lowry 92.2%
Neutral zone
Lowry 80.4%
Result
Adam Lowry favored at 70.9%
70.9%
29.1%
Lowry
Celebrini
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
2
(7 meetings)
5
2
Lowry
Celebrini
Last 7: Lowry 5-2 Celebrini
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Celebrini
1
2
Lowry
Celebrini
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Lowry
2
0
Lowry
Celebrini
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Lowry
2
0
Lowry
Celebrini
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Lowry
Celebrini
Edge
Even Strength
55.7% (707)
47.5% (979)
+8.2%
Power Play
85.7% (7)
53.6% (110)
+32.1%
Penalty Kill
39.0% (100)
56.0% (25)
-17.0%
On power play, Lowry has a +32.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Celebrini shoots left. Lowry is 50.8% vs left-shot opponents (561).
Lowry shoots left. Celebrini is 48.7% vs left-shot opponents (770).
Home / Away
Lowry
Celebrini
Home
54.3% (429)
47.8% (523)
Away
53.5% (385)
48.7% (591)
By Period
Lowry
Celebrini
P1
53.1%
47.4%
P2
55.2%
46.6%
P3
54.4%
50.8%
OT
40.0%
57.1%
Final 5 min
57.1%
45.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Lowry
52.0%▼
53.5%
53.9%
Celebrini
38.0%▼
42.0%
48.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 1, 2026 | 3 | 06:41 | Offensive | Adam Lowry |
| Mar 1, 2026 | 2 | 01:43 | Defensive | Adam Lowry |
| Mar 1, 2026 | 1 | 14:39 | Offensive | Macklin Celebrini |
| Nov 7, 2025 | 3 | 15:44 | Neutral | Adam Lowry |
| Nov 7, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Adam Lowry |
| Nov 7, 2025 | 2 | 19:35 | Offensive | Macklin Celebrini |
| Nov 7, 2025 | 2 | 09:37 | Defensive | Adam Lowry |