Scouting Report
Michael McCarron holds a +2.3% FO% edge overall. Look for McCarron on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Kasper wins 60.0% vs right-shot opponents — McCarron shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kasper 50.0% vs McCarron 52.1% (-2.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Kasper 81.0%
Defensive zone
McCarron 63.6%
Neutral zone
McCarron 51.0%
Result
Michael McCarron favored at 53.6%
46.4%
53.6%
Kasper
McCarron
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
6
(7 meetings)
1
6
Kasper
McCarron
Last 7: Kasper 1-6 McCarron
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: McCarron
0
1
Kasper
McCarron
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: McCarron
0
4
Kasper
McCarron
4 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Kasper
McCarron
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kasper
McCarron
Edge
Even Strength
51.4% (366)
52.8% (697)
-1.4%
Power Play
33.3% (9)
18.2% (11)
+15.1%
Penalty Kill
31.6% (19)
52.6% (211)
-21.0%
On penalty kill, McCarron has a +21.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
McCarron shoots right. Kasper is 60.0% vs right-shot opponents (130).
Kasper shoots left. McCarron is 53.8% vs left-shot opponents (645).
Home / Away
Kasper
McCarron
Home
51.5% (194)
52.8% (477)
Away
48.5% (200)
51.8% (442)
By Period
Kasper
McCarron
P1
54.1%
56.2%
P2
52.1%
52.4%
P3
43.4%
48.7%
OT
100.0%
0.0%
Final 5 min
42.5%
50.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kasper
52.0%▬
52.0%
50.0%
McCarron
38.0%▼
49.0%
52.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 2, 2026 | 3 | 19:43 | Defensive | Michael McCarron |
| Mar 2, 2026 | 3 | 12:43 | Defensive | Michael McCarron |
| Mar 2, 2026 | 2 | 05:32 | Offensive | Michael McCarron |
| Nov 26, 2025 | 3 | 14:42 | Neutral | Michael McCarron |
| Nov 26, 2025 | 1 | 13:37 | Defensive | Michael McCarron |
| Nov 26, 2025 | 1 | 10:19 | Defensive | Michael McCarron |
| Nov 26, 2025 | 1 | 09:58 | Neutral | Marco Kasper |