Scouting Report
Ryan Carpenter holds a +1.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Carpenter on neutral-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings). Jankowski wins 44.6% vs right-shot opponents — Carpenter shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Jankowski 48.9% vs Carpenter 50.2% (-1.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Jankowski 70.5%
Defensive zone
Carpenter 66.1%
Neutral zone
Jankowski 52.2%
Result
Mark Jankowski favored at 55.2%
55.2%
44.8%
Jankowski
Carpenter
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
4
(6 meetings)
2
4
Jankowski
Carpenter
Last 6: Jankowski 2-4 Carpenter
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Jankowski
1
0
Jankowski
Carpenter
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Carpenter
1
4
Jankowski
Carpenter
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Jankowski
Carpenter
Edge
Even Strength
49.5% (746)
48.4% (314)
+1.1%
Power Play
53.1% (32)
60.0% (5)
-6.9%
Penalty Kill
28.1% (32)
57.0% (79)
-28.9%
On penalty kill, Carpenter has a +28.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Carpenter shoots right. Jankowski is 44.6% vs right-shot opponents (296).
Jankowski shoots left. Carpenter is 47.1% vs left-shot opponents (278).
Home / Away
Jankowski
Carpenter
Home
50.4% (399)
55.8% (197)
Away
47.2% (411)
44.8% (201)
By Period
Jankowski
Carpenter
P1
49.4%
48.3%
P2
48.7%
47.8%
P3
48.7%
54.6%
OT
0.0%
0.0%
Final 5 min
52.2%
59.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Jankowski
54.0%▼
57.0%
48.8%
Carpenter
48.0%▬
47.0%
50.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 7, 2018 | 2 | 00:43 | Offensive | Mark Jankowski |
| Feb 21, 2018 | 3 | 14:37 | Neutral | Ryan Carpenter |
| Feb 21, 2018 | 3 | 14:18 | Neutral | Ryan Carpenter |
| Feb 21, 2018 | 3 | 11:51 | Neutral | Ryan Carpenter |
| Feb 21, 2018 | 3 | 11:45 | Neutral | Mark Jankowski |
| Feb 21, 2018 | 3 | 06:14 | Neutral | Ryan Carpenter |