Scouting Report
Mark Scheifele holds a +6.7% FO% edge overall. Scheifele wins 44.0% vs right-shot opponents — Barzal shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Scheifele 47.2% vs Barzal 41.9% (+6.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Scheifele 56.5%
Defensive zone
Barzal 70.3%
Neutral zone
Barzal 51.3%
Result
Mathew Barzal favored at 54.6%
45.4%
54.6%
Scheifele
Barzal
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
5
(9 meetings)
4
5
Scheifele
Barzal
Last 9: Scheifele 4-5 Barzal
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Scheifele
1
0
Scheifele
Barzal
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Barzal
0
2
Scheifele
Barzal
2 total
Neutral Zone
Even
3
3
Scheifele
Barzal
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Scheifele
Barzal
Edge
Even Strength
46.5% (919)
40.9% (469)
+5.6%
Power Play
48.7% (187)
34.2% (38)
+14.5%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (54)
28.6% (7)
+21.4%
On penalty kill, Scheifele has a +21.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Barzal shoots right. Scheifele is 44.0% vs right-shot opponents (259).
Scheifele shoots right. Barzal is 43.1% vs right-shot opponents (116).
Home / Away
Scheifele
Barzal
Home
46.6% (605)
39.2% (250)
Away
47.4% (555)
41.3% (264)
By Period
Scheifele
Barzal
P1
52.3%
46.3%
P2
45.3%
36.7%
P3
43.9%
38.5%
OT
27.3%
0.0%
Final 5 min
47.2%
41.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Scheifele
44.0%▼
54.0%
47.0%
Barzal
44.0%▬
45.0%
40.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 13, 2026 | 3 | 13:23 | Neutral | Mark Scheifele |
| Jan 13, 2026 | 3 | 03:46 | Neutral | Mark Scheifele |
| Jan 13, 2026 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Mathew Barzal |
| Jan 13, 2026 | 2 | 14:47 | Defensive | Mathew Barzal |
| Jan 13, 2026 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Mathew Barzal |
| Jan 13, 2026 | 1 | 16:11 | Offensive | Mark Scheifele |
| Jan 13, 2026 | 1 | 00:10 | Defensive | Mathew Barzal |
| Jan 13, 2026 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Mathew Barzal |
| Oct 13, 2025 | 1 | 07:35 | Neutral | Mark Scheifele |