Mark Scheifele vs Nathan MacKinnon
2025-26 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Nathan MacKinnon holds a +4.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Scheifele on offensive-zone draws (60% H2H, 5 meetings). Scheifele wins 44.0% vs right-shot opponents — MacKinnon shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Scheifele 47.2% vs MacKinnon 51.0% (-4.1%)
H2H factor
Scheifele leads 8-5 in 13 meetings
Offensive zone
MacKinnon 59.8%
Defensive zone
MacKinnon 69.1%
Neutral zone
MacKinnon 63.8%
Result
Nathan MacKinnon favored at 63.5%
36.5%
63.5%
Scheifele
MacKinnon
Head-to-Head Record
8
-
5
(13 meetings)
8
5
Scheifele
MacKinnon
Last 10: Scheifele 6-4 MacKinnon
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Scheifele
3
2
Scheifele
MacKinnon
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Scheifele
2
1
Scheifele
MacKinnon
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Scheifele
3
2
Scheifele
MacKinnon
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Scheifele
MacKinnon
Edge
Even Strength
46.5% (919)
49.7% (1,038)
-3.2%
Power Play
48.7% (187)
63.7% (157)
-15.0%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (54)
34.4% (32)
+15.6%
On penalty kill, Scheifele has a +15.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
MacKinnon shoots right. Scheifele is 44.0% vs right-shot opponents (259).
Scheifele shoots right. MacKinnon is 46.3% vs right-shot opponents (341).
Home / Away
Scheifele
MacKinnon
Home
46.6% (605)
53.1% (618)
Away
47.4% (555)
49.1% (609)
By Period
Scheifele
MacKinnon
P1
52.3%
49.3%
P2
45.3%
53.0%
P3
43.9%
50.7%
OT
27.3%
66.7%
Final 5 min
47.2%
56.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Scheifele
44.0%▼
54.0%
47.0%
MacKinnon
44.0%▼
50.5%
51.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 28, 2026 | 3 | 17:51 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Mar 28, 2026 | 3 | 00:45 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Mar 26, 2026 | 3 | 00:13 | Neutral | Mark Scheifele |
| Mar 26, 2026 | 1 | 09:55 | Neutral | Mark Scheifele |
| Mar 14, 2026 | 1 | 01:24 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Dec 19, 2025 | 3 | 07:55 | Offensive | Mark Scheifele |
| Dec 19, 2025 | 3 | 07:44 | Neutral | Mark Scheifele |
| Dec 19, 2025 | 2 | 11:30 | Defensive | Mark Scheifele |
| Dec 19, 2025 | 2 | 05:35 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Dec 19, 2025 | 2 | 02:45 | Offensive | Mark Scheifele |
| Dec 19, 2025 | 1 | 07:11 | Offensive | Mark Scheifele |
| Dec 19, 2025 | 1 | 01:24 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Dec 19, 2025 | 1 | 01:09 | Defensive | Mark Scheifele |