Scouting Report
Sam Steel holds a +3.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Scheifele on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Scheifele 47.2% vs Steel 50.6% (-3.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Scheifele 56.0%
Defensive zone
Steel 80.4%
Neutral zone
Steel 62.6%
Result
Sam Steel favored at 53.3%
46.7%
53.3%
Scheifele
Steel
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
2
(6 meetings)
4
2
Scheifele
Steel
Last 6: Scheifele 4-2 Steel
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Scheifele
2
1
Scheifele
Steel
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Scheifele
2
1
Scheifele
Steel
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Scheifele
Steel
Edge
Even Strength
46.5% (919)
52.5% (200)
-6.0%
Power Play
48.7% (187)
71.4% (7)
-22.7%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (54)
40.0% (45)
+10.0%
On power play, Steel has a +22.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Steel shoots left. Scheifele is 47.8% vs left-shot opponents (901).
Scheifele shoots right. Steel is 46.2% vs right-shot opponents (104).
Home / Away
Scheifele
Steel
Home
46.6% (605)
49.5% (109)
Away
47.4% (555)
51.7% (143)
By Period
Scheifele
Steel
P1
52.3%
49.5%
P2
45.3%
47.5%
P3
43.9%
56.6%
OT
27.3%
40.0%
Final 5 min
47.2%
50.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Scheifele
44.0%▼
54.0%
47.0%
Steel
50.0%▬
49.0%
50.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 9, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Sam Steel |
| Dec 9, 2025 | 2 | 17:35 | Offensive | Mark Scheifele |
| Dec 9, 2025 | 1 | 06:49 | Neutral | Mark Scheifele |
| Dec 9, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Mark Scheifele |
| Oct 9, 2025 | 2 | 12:38 | Offensive | Sam Steel |
| Oct 9, 2025 | 2 | 04:01 | Offensive | Mark Scheifele |