Scouting Report
Mark Scheifele holds a +2.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Thompson on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Scheifele wins 44.0% vs right-shot opponents — Thompson shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Scheifele 47.2% vs Thompson 45.2% (+2.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Thompson 53.0%
Defensive zone
Thompson 71.7%
Neutral zone
Thompson 63.8%
Result
Tage Thompson favored at 61.7%
38.3%
61.7%
Scheifele
Thompson
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
7
(9 meetings)
2
7
Scheifele
Thompson
Last 9: Scheifele 2-7 Thompson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Thompson
1
3
Scheifele
Thompson
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Thompson
1
2
Scheifele
Thompson
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Thompson
0
2
Scheifele
Thompson
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Scheifele
Thompson
Edge
Even Strength
46.5% (919)
44.6% (661)
+1.9%
Power Play
48.7% (187)
48.4% (95)
+0.3%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (54)
33.3% (33)
+16.7%
On penalty kill, Scheifele has a +16.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Thompson shoots right. Scheifele is 44.0% vs right-shot opponents (259).
Scheifele shoots right. Thompson is 51.8% vs right-shot opponents (222).
Home / Away
Scheifele
Thompson
Home
46.6% (605)
45.7% (411)
Away
47.4% (555)
43.4% (378)
By Period
Scheifele
Thompson
P1
52.3%
47.7%
P2
45.3%
45.7%
P3
43.9%
40.5%
OT
27.3%
42.9%
Final 5 min
47.2%
42.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Scheifele
44.0%▼
54.0%
47.0%
Thompson
36.0%▼
40.0%
44.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 5, 2025 | 3 | 12:06 | Neutral | Tage Thompson |
| Dec 5, 2025 | 3 | 00:54 | Offensive | Tage Thompson |
| Dec 5, 2025 | 3 | 00:36 | Defensive | Tage Thompson |
| Dec 5, 2025 | 2 | 01:17 | Neutral | Tage Thompson |
| Dec 5, 2025 | 1 | 12:05 | Offensive | Mark Scheifele |
| Dec 5, 2025 | 1 | 01:08 | Offensive | Tage Thompson |
| Dec 1, 2025 | 3 | 07:40 | Offensive | Tage Thompson |
| Dec 1, 2025 | 3 | 07:38 | Defensive | Mark Scheifele |
| Dec 1, 2025 | 2 | 10:56 | Defensive | Tage Thompson |