Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (47.0% vs 47.8%). Look for Johnston on neutral-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Scheifele wins 44.0% vs right-shot opponents — Johnston shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Scheifele 47.2% vs Johnston 48.0% (-0.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Scheifele 71.0%
Defensive zone
Johnston 63.4%
Neutral zone
Scheifele 51.1%
Result
Wyatt Johnston favored at 50.2%
49.8%
50.2%
Scheifele
Johnston
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
5
(7 meetings)
2
5
Scheifele
Johnston
Last 7: Scheifele 2-5 Johnston
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Scheifele
1
0
Scheifele
Johnston
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Johnston
0
2
Scheifele
Johnston
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Johnston
1
3
Scheifele
Johnston
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Scheifele
Johnston
Edge
Even Strength
46.5% (919)
47.3% (666)
-0.8%
Power Play
48.7% (187)
50.7% (69)
-2.0%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (54)
51.4% (35)
-1.4%
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Johnston shoots right. Scheifele is 44.0% vs right-shot opponents (259).
Scheifele shoots right. Johnston is 51.5% vs right-shot opponents (202).
Home / Away
Scheifele
Johnston
Home
46.6% (605)
47.5% (364)
Away
47.4% (555)
48.0% (406)
By Period
Scheifele
Johnston
P1
52.3%
49.4%
P2
45.3%
46.9%
P3
43.9%
47.1%
OT
27.3%
47.1%
Final 5 min
47.2%
46.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Scheifele
44.0%▼
54.0%
47.0%
Johnston
40.0%▼
49.0%
47.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 2, 2026 | 3 | 11:58 | Neutral | Mark Scheifele |
| Feb 2, 2026 | 3 | 00:58 | Neutral | Wyatt Johnston |
| Feb 2, 2026 | 1 | 00:28 | Defensive | Wyatt Johnston |
| Dec 9, 2025 | 3 | 17:08 | Offensive | Mark Scheifele |
| Dec 9, 2025 | 2 | 11:04 | Neutral | Wyatt Johnston |
| Dec 9, 2025 | 2 | 06:33 | Neutral | Wyatt Johnston |
| Oct 9, 2025 | 2 | 04:21 | Defensive | Wyatt Johnston |