Scouting Report
Curtis Lazar holds a +12.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Lazar on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 5 meetings). Lazar wins 61.5% vs left-shot opponents — McTavish shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Lazar 58.1% vs McTavish 49.1% (+12.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Lazar 66.6%
Defensive zone
Lazar 98.1%
Neutral zone
Lazar 88.4%
Result
Curtis Lazar favored at 74.8%
74.8%
25.2%
Lazar
McTavish
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
1
(8 meetings)
7
1
Lazar
McTavish
Last 8: Lazar 7-1 McTavish
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Lazar
5
0
Lazar
McTavish
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Lazar
2
1
Lazar
McTavish
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Lazar
McTavish
Edge
Even Strength
63.5% (181)
47.6% (617)
+15.9%
Power Play
0.0% (1)
57.8% (102)
-57.8%
Penalty Kill
56.3% (71)
33.3% (6)
+23.0%
On power play, McTavish has a +57.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
McTavish shoots left. Lazar is 61.5% vs left-shot opponents (205).
Lazar shoots right. McTavish is 50.0% vs right-shot opponents (256).
Home / Away
Lazar
McTavish
Home
63.0% (135)
52.2% (389)
Away
59.3% (118)
45.2% (336)
By Period
Lazar
McTavish
P1
64.6%
50.2%
P2
60.0%
47.9%
P3
59.3%
49.0%
Final 5 min
67.2%
45.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Lazar
72.0%▲
63.0%
61.3%
McTavish
48.0%▲
45.5%
49.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 25, 2026 | 3 | 17:16 | Offensive | Curtis Lazar |
| Feb 25, 2026 | 3 | 17:11 | Offensive | Curtis Lazar |
| Feb 25, 2026 | 3 | 05:53 | Neutral | Curtis Lazar |
| Feb 25, 2026 | 3 | 03:09 | Neutral | Curtis Lazar |
| Feb 25, 2026 | 3 | 02:55 | Neutral | Mason McTavish |
| Feb 25, 2026 | 2 | 13:58 | Offensive | Curtis Lazar |
| Feb 25, 2026 | 2 | 13:55 | Offensive | Curtis Lazar |
| Feb 25, 2026 | 1 | 07:10 | Offensive | Curtis Lazar |