Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +16.7% FO% edge overall. Look for O'Reilly on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Coronato wins 35.6% vs left-shot opponents — O'Reilly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Coronato 43.1% vs O'Reilly 55.0% (-16.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Coronato 85.6%
Defensive zone
Coronato 78.7%
Neutral zone
Coronato 81.5%
Result
Matt Coronato favored at 80.6%
80.6%
19.4%
Coronato
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
7
(8 meetings)
1
7
Coronato
O'Reilly
Last 8: Coronato 1-7 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Coronato
1
0
Coronato
O'Reilly
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
0
4
Coronato
O'Reilly
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
0
3
Coronato
O'Reilly
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Coronato
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
38.0% (121)
55.7% (856)
-17.7%
Power Play
43.8% (32)
57.5% (233)
-13.7%
Penalty Kill
0.0% (2)
50.0% (144)
-50.0%
On penalty kill, O'Reilly has a +50.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Coronato is 35.6% vs left-shot opponents (135).
Coronato shoots right. O'Reilly is 54.9% vs right-shot opponents (530).
Home / Away
Coronato
O'Reilly
Home
38.9% (72)
55.5% (616)
Away
38.6% (83)
55.3% (617)
By Period
Coronato
O'Reilly
P1
50.0%
58.1%
P2
35.4%
54.9%
P3
30.2%
53.9%
Final 5 min
36.7%
56.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Coronato
40.0%▬
39.0%
38.7%
O'Reilly
54.0%▬
55.0%
55.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 3, 2026 | 3 | 19:31 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 3, 2026 | 2 | 06:12 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 3, 2026 | 2 | 03:10 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 3, 2026 | 1 | 09:16 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 3, 2026 | 1 | 06:08 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 3, 2026 | 1 | 05:50 | Offensive | Matt Coronato |
| Dec 2, 2025 | 2 | 11:42 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 1, 2025 | 2 | 17:29 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |