Scouting Report
Matt Duchene holds a +14.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Duchene on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 5 meetings). Ebbett wins 42.0% vs left-shot opponents — Duchene shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Ebbett 42.5% vs Duchene 54.2% (-14.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Ebbett 82.6%
Defensive zone
Ebbett 80.4%
Neutral zone
Ebbett 82.9%
Result
Andrew Ebbett favored at 81.6%
81.6%
18.4%
Ebbett
Duchene
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
7
(9 meetings)
2
7
Ebbett
Duchene
Last 9: Ebbett 2-7 Duchene
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
0
5
Ebbett
Duchene
5 total
Defensive Zone
Even
2
2
Ebbett
Duchene
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Ebbett
Duchene
Edge
Even Strength
38.3% (227)
56.8% (706)
-18.5%
Power Play
50.0% (12)
56.1% (57)
-6.1%
Penalty Kill
46.4% (28)
42.3% (130)
+4.1%
On even strength, Duchene has a +18.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Duchene shoots left. Ebbett is 42.0% vs left-shot opponents (205).
Ebbett shoots left. Duchene is 56.7% vs left-shot opponents (635).
Home / Away
Ebbett
Duchene
Home
37.2% (121)
56.6% (488)
Away
41.8% (146)
52.3% (405)
By Period
Ebbett
Duchene
P1
45.5%
52.0%
P2
40.2%
53.7%
P3
35.1%
58.5%
OT
0.0%
46.7%
Final 5 min
33.8%
51.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Ebbett
42.0%▼
43.5%
39.7%
Duchene
52.0%▲
49.5%
54.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 13, 2013 | 3 | 09:45 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 28, 2013 | 3 | 12:36 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 28, 2013 | 3 | 07:25 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 28, 2013 | 1 | 04:59 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 24, 2013 | 3 | 08:40 | Defensive | Andrew Ebbett |
| Mar 24, 2013 | 3 | 07:32 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 24, 2013 | 3 | 07:20 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 24, 2013 | 2 | 11:11 | Defensive | Andrew Ebbett |
| Mar 24, 2013 | 2 | 07:10 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |