Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (52.6% vs 52.2%). Look for Hayton on neutral-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Hayton wins 55.2% vs left-shot opponents — Duchene shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Hayton 52.3% vs Duchene 51.8% (+0.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Duchene 70.8%
Defensive zone
Duchene 50.1%
Neutral zone
Duchene 53.2%
Result
Matt Duchene favored at 52.1%
47.9%
52.1%
Hayton
Duchene
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
1
(6 meetings)
5
1
Hayton
Duchene
Last 6: Hayton 5-1 Duchene
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hayton
2
0
Hayton
Duchene
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hayton
3
1
Hayton
Duchene
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Hayton
Duchene
Edge
Even Strength
52.4% (647)
51.1% (366)
+1.3%
Power Play
56.8% (111)
61.5% (65)
-4.7%
Penalty Kill
36.8% (19)
16.7% (6)
+20.1%
On penalty kill, Hayton has a +20.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Duchene shoots left. Hayton is 55.2% vs left-shot opponents (475).
Hayton shoots left. Duchene is 51.8% vs left-shot opponents (272).
Home / Away
Hayton
Duchene
Home
56.8% (433)
51.7% (201)
Away
47.4% (344)
52.5% (236)
By Period
Hayton
Duchene
P1
52.8%
49.0%
P2
50.3%
57.1%
P3
55.4%
49.2%
OT
25.0%
60.0%
Final 5 min
59.5%
51.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Hayton
40.0%▼
51.0%
52.6%
Duchene
56.0%▲
51.0%
52.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 16, 2026 | 3 | 00:05 | Defensive | Barrett Hayton |
| Mar 16, 2026 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Barrett Hayton |
| Mar 16, 2026 | 2 | 18:18 | Defensive | Barrett Hayton |
| Mar 16, 2026 | 2 | 15:34 | Neutral | Barrett Hayton |
| Mar 16, 2026 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Barrett Hayton |
| Mar 16, 2026 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |