Scouting Report
Matt Duchene holds a +7.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Duchene on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Ryan wins 56.1% vs left-shot opponents — Duchene shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Ryan 54.6% vs Duchene 61.5% (-7.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Ryan 81.3%
Defensive zone
Ryan 54.7%
Neutral zone
Ryan 65.3%
Result
Derek Ryan favored at 56.8%
56.8%
43.2%
Ryan
Duchene
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
4
(5 meetings)
1
4
Ryan
Duchene
Last 5: Ryan 1-4 Duchene
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
0
4
Ryan
Duchene
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Ryan
1
0
Ryan
Duchene
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Ryan
Duchene
Edge
Even Strength
54.9% (576)
62.2% (802)
-7.3%
Power Play
59.8% (112)
67.3% (153)
-7.5%
Penalty Kill
42.1% (19)
59.4% (143)
-17.3%
On penalty kill, Duchene has a +17.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Duchene shoots left. Ryan is 56.1% vs left-shot opponents (478).
Ryan shoots right. Duchene is 65.4% vs right-shot opponents (407).
Home / Away
Ryan
Duchene
Home
57.7% (355)
66.5% (555)
Away
52.8% (352)
58.6% (543)
By Period
Ryan
Duchene
P1
57.9%
63.2%
P2
53.2%
59.6%
P3
54.8%
65.0%
OT
100.0%
71.4%
Final 5 min
51.6%
65.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Ryan
52.0%▼
60.0%
55.3%
Duchene
52.0%▲
49.5%
62.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 7, 2017 | 2 | 18:53 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 7, 2017 | 1 | 08:40 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 7, 2017 | 1 | 00:57 | Neutral | Derek Ryan |
| Feb 17, 2017 | 2 | 17:01 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Feb 17, 2017 | 1 | 19:55 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |