Scouting Report
Matt Duchene holds a +5.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Duchene on defensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 10 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Cozens 48.5% vs Duchene 54.1% (-5.7%)
H2H factor
Duchene leads 16-6 in 22 meetings
Offensive zone
Cozens 87.5%
Defensive zone
Cozens 83.3%
Neutral zone
Cozens 83.6%
Result
Dylan Cozens favored at 85.1%
85.1%
14.9%
Cozens
Duchene
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
16
(22 meetings)
6
16
Cozens
Duchene
Last 10: Cozens 4-6 Duchene
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
4
5
Cozens
Duchene
9 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
2
8
Cozens
Duchene
10 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Duchene
0
3
Cozens
Duchene
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Cozens
Duchene
Edge
Even Strength
49.0% (4,103)
53.9% (10,438)
-4.9%
Power Play
50.3% (717)
57.0% (1,677)
-6.7%
Penalty Kill
41.0% (439)
49.1% (468)
-8.1%
On penalty kill, Duchene has a +8.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Duchene shoots left. Cozens is 49.2% vs left-shot opponents (3,802).
Cozens shoots right. Duchene is 55.2% vs right-shot opponents (4,518).
Home / Away
Cozens
Duchene
Home
48.3% (2,685)
55.6% (6,430)
Away
48.7% (2,574)
52.7% (6,177)
By Period
Cozens
Duchene
P1
49.1%
54.4%
P2
47.8%
54.5%
P3
48.9%
53.4%
OT
34.3%
56.3%
Final 5 min
46.1%
53.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Cozens
62.0%▲
53.0%
48.5%
Duchene
56.0%▲
51.0%
54.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 31, 2024 | 3 | 11:03 | Defensive | Dylan Cozens |
| Dec 31, 2024 | 1 | 13:40 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Dec 31, 2024 | 1 | 10:10 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Oct 22, 2024 | 3 | 15:59 | Offensive | Dylan Cozens |
| Oct 22, 2024 | 2 | 01:13 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Oct 22, 2024 | 1 | 02:44 | Defensive | Dylan Cozens |
| Apr 9, 2024 | 3 | 04:53 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Apr 9, 2024 | 1 | 16:09 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Apr 9, 2024 | 1 | 08:42 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Feb 6, 2024 | 3 | 19:26 | Offensive | Dylan Cozens |
| Feb 6, 2024 | 3 | 06:25 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Feb 6, 2024 | 3 | 06:13 | Offensive | Dylan Cozens |
| Feb 6, 2024 | 2 | 09:04 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Feb 6, 2024 | 2 | 05:53 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Feb 6, 2024 | 1 | 08:11 | Offensive | Dylan Cozens |
| Feb 6, 2024 | 1 | 08:06 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Feb 6, 2024 | 1 | 07:59 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Feb 6, 2024 | 1 | 06:08 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Feb 6, 2024 | 1 | 01:03 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 21, 2023 | 3 | 04:31 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |