Scouting Report
Matt Duchene holds a +13.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Rose on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Rose wins 41.0% vs left-shot opponents — Duchene shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Rose 44.9% vs Duchene 55.3% (-13.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Duchene 66.1%
Defensive zone
Rose 76.2%
Neutral zone
Rose 52.1%
Result
Jacob de la Rose favored at 53.3%
53.3%
46.7%
Rose
Duchene
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
3
(5 meetings)
2
3
Rose
Duchene
Last 5: Rose 2-3 Duchene
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
0
1
Rose
Duchene
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
0
1
Rose
Duchene
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Rose
2
1
Rose
Duchene
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Rose
Duchene
Edge
Even Strength
42.3% (234)
56.0% (579)
-13.7%
Power Play
16.7% (6)
59.3% (108)
-42.6%
Penalty Kill
52.9% (34)
25.0% (8)
+27.9%
On power play, Duchene has a +42.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Duchene shoots left. Rose is 41.0% vs left-shot opponents (166).
Rose shoots left. Duchene is 52.6% vs left-shot opponents (454).
Home / Away
Rose
Duchene
Home
40.7% (140)
54.9% (375)
Away
45.5% (134)
57.5% (320)
By Period
Rose
Duchene
P1
46.9%
58.3%
P2
41.3%
56.7%
P3
40.5%
53.1%
Final 5 min
35.7%
54.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Rose
48.0%▲
44.5%
43.1%
Duchene
52.0%▲
49.5%
56.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 25, 2019 | 2 | 19:14 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Nov 25, 2019 | 2 | 07:29 | Neutral | Jacob de la Rose |
| Nov 25, 2019 | 2 | 04:24 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Nov 25, 2019 | 1 | 07:28 | Neutral | Jacob de la Rose |
| Nov 4, 2019 | 2 | 01:14 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |