Scouting Report
Joe Thornton holds a +3.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Duchene on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 5 meetings). Thornton wins 57.7% vs left-shot opponents — Duchene shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Thornton 57.4% vs Duchene 54.2% (+3.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Thornton 51.3%
Defensive zone
Duchene 57.0%
Neutral zone
Duchene 57.0%
Result
Matt Duchene favored at 56.1%
43.9%
56.1%
Thornton
Duchene
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
5
(9 meetings)
4
5
Thornton
Duchene
Last 9: Thornton 4-5 Duchene
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Thornton
1
0
Thornton
Duchene
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Thornton
3
0
Thornton
Duchene
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Duchene
0
5
Thornton
Duchene
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Thornton
Duchene
Edge
Even Strength
57.0% (540)
56.8% (706)
+0.2%
Power Play
64.0% (111)
56.1% (57)
+7.9%
Penalty Kill
62.0% (50)
42.3% (130)
+19.7%
On penalty kill, Thornton has a +19.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Duchene shoots left. Thornton is 57.7% vs left-shot opponents (478).
Thornton shoots left. Duchene is 56.7% vs left-shot opponents (635).
Home / Away
Thornton
Duchene
Home
56.7% (353)
56.6% (488)
Away
60.3% (348)
52.3% (405)
By Period
Thornton
Duchene
P1
59.3%
52.0%
P2
60.1%
53.7%
P3
57.1%
58.5%
OT
47.6%
46.7%
Final 5 min
58.0%
51.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Thornton
44.0%▼
46.5%
58.5%
Duchene
52.0%▲
49.5%
54.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 10, 2013 | 3 | 19:49 | Defensive | Joe Thornton |
| Mar 10, 2013 | 1 | 11:31 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Jan 26, 2013 | 3 | 15:43 | Defensive | Joe Thornton |
| Jan 26, 2013 | 3 | 07:28 | Defensive | Joe Thornton |
| Jan 26, 2013 | 3 | 07:20 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Jan 26, 2013 | 3 | 07:12 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Jan 26, 2013 | 2 | 08:46 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Jan 26, 2013 | 1 | 15:04 | Offensive | Joe Thornton |
| Jan 26, 2013 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |