Scouting Report
Matt Duchene holds a +17.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Duchene on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Reddox wins 32.6% vs left-shot opponents — Duchene shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Reddox 40.6% vs Duchene 50.4% (-17.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Duchene 69.2%
Defensive zone
Reddox 52.9%
Neutral zone
Duchene 54.3%
Result
Matt Duchene favored at 53.2%
46.8%
53.2%
Reddox
Duchene
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
3
(6 meetings)
3
3
Reddox
Duchene
Last 6: Reddox 3-3 Duchene
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Reddox
1
0
Reddox
Duchene
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
1
2
Reddox
Duchene
3 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Reddox
Duchene
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Reddox
Duchene
Edge
Even Strength
31.8% (107)
50.5% (1,070)
-18.7%
Power Play
60.0% (5)
49.3% (136)
+10.7%
Penalty Kill
33.3% (12)
50.0% (20)
-16.7%
On even strength, Duchene has a +18.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Duchene shoots left. Reddox is 32.6% vs left-shot opponents (89).
Reddox shoots left. Duchene is 49.9% vs left-shot opponents (897).
Home / Away
Reddox
Duchene
Home
30.9% (55)
49.8% (633)
Away
34.8% (69)
51.1% (613)
By Period
Reddox
Duchene
P1
34.3%
51.0%
P2
30.6%
51.5%
P3
35.3%
49.1%
OT
0.0%
36.8%
Final 5 min
43.5%
53.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Reddox
34.0%▬
33.1%
33.1%
Duchene
52.0%▲
49.5%
50.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 19, 2011 | 3 | 14:04 | Defensive | Liam Reddox |
| Mar 19, 2011 | 3 | 11:27 | Neutral | Liam Reddox |
| Mar 19, 2011 | 3 | 07:05 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 19, 2011 | 3 | 03:47 | Offensive | Liam Reddox |
| Mar 19, 2011 | 2 | 01:05 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 19, 2011 | 1 | 01:08 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |