Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (52.2% vs 52.3%). Look for Duchene on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 8 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Duchene 51.8% vs McCarron 52.1% (-0.1%)
H2H factor
Duchene leads 8-4 in 12 meetings
Offensive zone
Duchene 89.7%
Defensive zone
McCarron 80.1%
Neutral zone
McCarron 50.9%
Result
Matt Duchene favored at 66.4%
66.4%
33.6%
Duchene
McCarron
Head-to-Head Record
8
-
4
(12 meetings)
8
4
Duchene
McCarron
Last 10: Duchene 8-2 McCarron
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
8
0
Duchene
McCarron
8 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: McCarron
0
4
Duchene
McCarron
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Duchene
McCarron
Edge
Even Strength
51.1% (366)
52.8% (697)
-1.7%
Power Play
61.5% (65)
18.2% (11)
+43.3%
Penalty Kill
16.7% (6)
52.6% (211)
-35.9%
On power play, Duchene has a +43.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
McCarron shoots right. Duchene is 52.7% vs right-shot opponents (165).
Duchene shoots left. McCarron is 53.8% vs left-shot opponents (645).
Home / Away
Duchene
McCarron
Home
51.7% (201)
52.8% (477)
Away
52.5% (236)
51.8% (442)
By Period
Duchene
McCarron
P1
49.0%
56.2%
P2
57.1%
52.4%
P3
49.2%
48.7%
OT
60.0%
0.0%
Final 5 min
51.9%
50.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Duchene
56.0%▲
51.0%
52.2%
McCarron
38.0%▼
49.0%
52.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 21, 2026 | 3 | 12:16 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 21, 2026 | 3 | 08:27 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 21, 2026 | 3 | 05:59 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 21, 2026 | 2 | 16:59 | Defensive | Michael McCarron |
| Mar 21, 2026 | 1 | 14:10 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 21, 2026 | 1 | 10:58 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 21, 2026 | 1 | 10:53 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Feb 28, 2026 | 3 | 17:57 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Feb 28, 2026 | 2 | 16:09 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Feb 28, 2026 | 2 | 07:15 | Defensive | Michael McCarron |
| Feb 28, 2026 | 2 | 01:16 | Defensive | Michael McCarron |
| Feb 28, 2026 | 1 | 05:50 | Defensive | Michael McCarron |