Scouting Report
Brady Tkachuk holds a +4.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Zibanejad on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 5 meetings). Tkachuk wins 46.8% vs right-shot opponents — Zibanejad shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tkachuk 55.0% vs Zibanejad 51.8% (+4.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Tkachuk 70.2%
Defensive zone
Zibanejad 89.9%
Neutral zone
Zibanejad 60.7%
Result
Mika Zibanejad favored at 70.0%
30.0%
70.0%
Tkachuk
Zibanejad
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
6
(9 meetings)
3
6
Tkachuk
Zibanejad
Last 9: Tkachuk 3-6 Zibanejad
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tkachuk
2
0
Tkachuk
Zibanejad
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Zibanejad
0
5
Tkachuk
Zibanejad
5 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Tkachuk
Zibanejad
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tkachuk
Zibanejad
Edge
Even Strength
54.9% (153)
53.3% (807)
+1.6%
Power Play
59.4% (106)
47.6% (42)
+11.8%
Penalty Kill
100.0% (1)
46.3% (147)
+53.7%
On penalty kill, Tkachuk has a +53.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Zibanejad shoots right. Tkachuk is 46.8% vs right-shot opponents (77).
Tkachuk shoots left. Zibanejad is 52.0% vs left-shot opponents (729).
Home / Away
Tkachuk
Zibanejad
Home
50.8% (128)
49.8% (466)
Away
62.9% (132)
54.0% (530)
By Period
Tkachuk
Zibanejad
P1
56.6%
52.9%
P2
58.9%
51.2%
P3
56.2%
51.7%
OT
50.0%
60.0%
Final 5 min
55.2%
57.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tkachuk
54.0%▼
58.5%
56.9%
Zibanejad
58.0%▲
53.0%
52.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 23, 2026 | 3 | 15:54 | Defensive | Mika Zibanejad |
| Mar 23, 2026 | 2 | 19:16 | Defensive | Mika Zibanejad |
| Mar 23, 2026 | 2 | 17:21 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Mar 23, 2026 | 2 | 16:13 | Defensive | Mika Zibanejad |
| Mar 23, 2026 | 2 | 10:02 | Neutral | Mika Zibanejad |
| Mar 23, 2026 | 2 | 08:08 | Defensive | Mika Zibanejad |
| Mar 23, 2026 | 1 | 18:03 | Defensive | Mika Zibanejad |
| Jan 14, 2026 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Brady Tkachuk |
| Dec 4, 2025 | 1 | 18:25 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |