Scouting Report
Mikael Backlund holds a +3.6% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Finnie 48.2% vs Backlund 49.8% (-3.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Finnie 79.3%
Defensive zone
Backlund 77.7%
Neutral zone
Backlund 54.8%
Result
Mikael Backlund favored at 59.4%
40.6%
59.4%
Finnie
Backlund
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
3
(5 meetings)
2
3
Finnie
Backlund
Last 5: Finnie 2-3 Backlund
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Backlund
0
1
Finnie
Backlund
1 total
Neutral Zone
Even
2
2
Finnie
Backlund
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Finnie
Backlund
Edge
Even Strength
49.4% (77)
50.5% (944)
-1.1%
Power Play
36.4% (11)
51.5% (66)
-15.1%
Penalty Kill
0.0% (3)
47.1% (297)
-47.1%
On penalty kill, Backlund has a +47.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Backlund shoots left. Finnie is 49.1% vs left-shot opponents (55).
Finnie shoots left. Backlund is 49.9% vs left-shot opponents (938).
Home / Away
Finnie
Backlund
Home
47.4% (57)
48.1% (636)
Away
44.1% (34)
51.4% (671)
By Period
Finnie
Backlund
P1
48.4%
45.4%
P2
48.1%
54.1%
P3
42.4%
49.2%
Final 5 min
58.8%
48.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Finnie
54.0%▲
46.2%
46.2%
Backlund
50.0%▬
50.0%
49.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 16, 2026 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Emmitt Finnie |
| Mar 16, 2026 | 1 | 02:47 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Mar 16, 2026 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Mikael Backlund |
| Dec 10, 2025 | 2 | 03:47 | Neutral | Mikael Backlund |
| Dec 10, 2025 | 1 | 07:44 | Neutral | Emmitt Finnie |