Scouting Report
Mikael Backlund holds a +11.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Kempe on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Kempe wins 37.4% vs left-shot opponents — Backlund shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kempe 41.0% vs Backlund 49.6% (-11.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Backlund 74.6%
Defensive zone
Backlund 67.1%
Neutral zone
Backlund 60.1%
Result
Mikael Backlund favored at 68.1%
31.9%
68.1%
Kempe
Backlund
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
4
(9 meetings)
5
4
Kempe
Backlund
Last 9: Kempe 5-4 Backlund
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
2
2
Kempe
Backlund
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Backlund
0
2
Kempe
Backlund
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Kempe
3
0
Kempe
Backlund
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kempe
Backlund
Edge
Even Strength
38.5% (312)
49.2% (884)
-10.7%
Power Play
33.3% (3)
44.3% (61)
-11.0%
Penalty Kill
35.7% (14)
57.0% (86)
-21.3%
On penalty kill, Backlund has a +21.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Backlund shoots left. Kempe is 37.4% vs left-shot opponents (219).
Kempe shoots left. Backlund is 50.8% vs left-shot opponents (654).
Home / Away
Kempe
Backlund
Home
38.8% (160)
49.3% (531)
Away
37.9% (169)
49.8% (500)
By Period
Kempe
Backlund
P1
35.9%
47.1%
P2
39.0%
53.7%
P3
38.9%
47.8%
OT
100.0%
40.0%
Final 5 min
42.6%
43.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kempe
50.0%▲
38.5%
38.3%
Backlund
44.0%▬
44.0%
49.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 7, 2019 | 2 | 03:23 | Offensive | Mario Kempe |
| Mar 7, 2019 | 2 | 00:32 | Neutral | Mario Kempe |
| Mar 7, 2019 | 1 | 17:35 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Mar 7, 2019 | 1 | 01:05 | Offensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Feb 18, 2019 | 1 | 17:58 | Offensive | Mario Kempe |
| Jan 13, 2019 | 2 | 17:20 | Neutral | Mario Kempe |
| Jan 13, 2019 | 2 | 10:32 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Jan 13, 2019 | 2 | 01:12 | Offensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Jan 13, 2019 | 1 | 01:48 | Neutral | Mario Kempe |