Scouting Report
Morgan Frost holds a +10.8% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Finnie 48.2% vs Frost 56.3% (-10.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Frost 79.0%
Defensive zone
Frost 62.7%
Neutral zone
Frost 68.7%
Result
Morgan Frost favored at 67.5%
32.5%
67.5%
Finnie
Frost
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
2
(5 meetings)
3
2
Finnie
Frost
Last 5: Finnie 3-2 Frost
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Finnie
1
0
Finnie
Frost
1 total
Neutral Zone
Even
2
2
Finnie
Frost
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Finnie
Frost
Edge
Even Strength
49.4% (77)
55.8% (745)
-6.4%
Power Play
36.4% (11)
60.5% (172)
-24.1%
Penalty Kill
0.0% (3)
88.9% (9)
-88.9%
On penalty kill, Frost has a +88.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Frost shoots left. Finnie is 49.1% vs left-shot opponents (55).
Finnie shoots left. Frost is 58.0% vs left-shot opponents (636).
Home / Away
Finnie
Frost
Home
47.4% (57)
57.3% (497)
Away
44.1% (34)
56.6% (429)
By Period
Finnie
Frost
P1
48.4%
60.1%
P2
48.1%
56.0%
P3
42.4%
54.7%
Final 5 min
58.8%
52.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Finnie
54.0%▲
46.2%
46.2%
Frost
68.0%▲
62.0%
57.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 16, 2026 | 3 | 07:08 | Neutral | Morgan Frost |
| Mar 16, 2026 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Emmitt Finnie |
| Mar 16, 2026 | 2 | 11:45 | Neutral | Morgan Frost |
| Mar 16, 2026 | 2 | 05:06 | Neutral | Emmitt Finnie |
| Mar 16, 2026 | 1 | 12:15 | Defensive | Emmitt Finnie |