Scouting Report
Morgan Frost holds a +12.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Frost on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Frost wins 54.8% vs right-shot opponents — Ford shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Frost 56.4% vs Ford 47.9% (+12.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Frost 87.4%
Defensive zone
Ford 53.2%
Neutral zone
Frost 61.2%
Result
Morgan Frost favored at 63.5%
63.5%
36.5%
Frost
Ford
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
2
(5 meetings)
3
2
Frost
Ford
Last 5: Frost 3-2 Ford
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Frost
1
0
Frost
Ford
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Ford
0
1
Frost
Ford
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Frost
2
1
Frost
Ford
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Frost
Ford
Edge
Even Strength
56.0% (755)
45.1% (51)
+10.9%
Power Play
60.1% (173)
100.0% (1)
-39.9%
Penalty Kill
88.9% (9)
38.5% (13)
+50.4%
On penalty kill, Frost has a +50.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Ford shoots right. Frost is 54.8% vs right-shot opponents (290).
Frost shoots left. Ford is 41.1% vs left-shot opponents (56).
Home / Away
Frost
Ford
Home
57.3% (497)
35.7% (14)
Away
56.8% (440)
47.1% (51)
By Period
Frost
Ford
P1
60.2%
50.0%
P2
56.0%
52.0%
P3
54.8%
31.8%
Final 5 min
52.6%
50.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Frost
68.0%▲
63.0%
57.1%
Ford
44.0%▬
44.6%
44.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 15, 2025 | 3 | 17:13 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Nov 15, 2025 | 3 | 14:52 | Neutral | Morgan Frost |
| Nov 15, 2025 | 2 | 07:52 | Neutral | Parker Ford |
| Nov 15, 2025 | 1 | 14:42 | Neutral | Morgan Frost |
| Nov 15, 2025 | 1 | 14:33 | Defensive | Parker Ford |