Scouting Report
Jason Spezza holds a +2.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Thompson on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Spezza wins 53.8% vs left-shot opponents — Thompson shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Spezza 54.4% vs Thompson 51.7% (+2.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Spezza 67.6%
Defensive zone
Thompson 67.6%
Neutral zone
Spezza 50.1%
Result
Jason Spezza favored at 50.0%
50.0%
50.0%
Spezza
Thompson
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
5
(7 meetings)
2
5
Spezza
Thompson
Last 7: Spezza 2-5 Thompson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Thompson
1
2
Spezza
Thompson
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Thompson
1
2
Spezza
Thompson
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Thompson
0
1
Spezza
Thompson
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Spezza
Thompson
Edge
Even Strength
53.2% (763)
53.2% (380)
+0.0%
Power Play
60.9% (197)
50.0% (16)
+10.9%
Penalty Kill
57.1% (21)
45.5% (55)
+11.6%
On penalty kill, Spezza has a +11.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Thompson shoots left. Spezza is 53.8% vs left-shot opponents (675).
Spezza shoots right. Thompson is 53.6% vs right-shot opponents (140).
Home / Away
Spezza
Thompson
Home
57.5% (518)
53.9% (243)
Away
51.8% (463)
50.0% (208)
By Period
Spezza
Thompson
P1
55.4%
46.9%
P2
54.1%
62.2%
P3
55.5%
47.5%
OT
25.0%
100.0%
Final 5 min
59.1%
44.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Spezza
46.0%▼
48.5%
54.8%
Thompson
64.0%▲
59.0%
52.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 3, 2016 | 3 | 16:07 | Offensive | Nate Thompson |
| Apr 3, 2016 | 1 | 17:18 | Defensive | Nate Thompson |
| Jan 15, 2016 | 3 | 18:05 | Defensive | Nate Thompson |
| Jan 15, 2016 | 3 | 17:58 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |
| Jan 15, 2016 | 3 | 16:04 | Defensive | Jason Spezza |
| Jan 15, 2016 | 3 | 11:58 | Neutral | Nate Thompson |
| Jan 15, 2016 | 2 | 02:33 | Offensive | Nate Thompson |